|
| Main | Premier League | Log In |
Every match was a closeout this week with a large margin in every victory. The closest match was probably Dragonwings vs Emblem. It can be argued that preseason means nothing, especially when rosters aren't locked yet, but there's no doubt that it gives a lot of clues as to how far squads need to go this season to compete for #1.
Let's take a look at the results and revised rankings...definitely some upsets this week.
Going down the list:
#? (BALL) defeats #2 (Money) - After a resounding pounding of bad, Money gets stopped short this week. Dueling spiders made this an interesting match at the outset.
#1 (Diss) def. #13 (Secret) - Pempu had a bad day w/ two deaths in the opening minutes of the game that set the pace for the rest of the game. Dissent steamrolled through a second week.
#3 (Creation) defs #7 (Foodons) - Don't Talk to Me opened the match w/ the 1st three kills and lead his team to a solid overpowering victory.
#11 (Rebs) defs #9 (llams) - Minor upset here w/ Rebs showing a bit more muster in their muzzles than expected. Actually, they picked up esidebob out of nowhere and now are a solid contendor.
#14 (dragon) defs #12 (emblem) - zoldan had a bad day w/ two deaths in the opening minutes, and still emblem held on strong to a 5-5 before slipping out on the weak slot. Another minor upset here.
#8 (Mut) defs #10 (Friendly) - Kylec was the fallguy this time with the double deaths early. Mut closed out clean after that.
#6 (Spell) defs #15 (Flames) - I'm not sure what the predictors (20-14 IF) were smoking on this one, but Spell is active as hell and has their shit together while IF is still introducing themselves to each other.
#5 (bad) defs #4 (nw) - nw came back from a 7-0 defecit to make match 7-5 before finally succumbing. NW is infamous for their comeback victories, but their roster took some hits and inactivity plagues them...if they want to compete at the top this season they need to recruit another solid, active player or two at least for pracs.
New Rankings
Rank(Movement) - Top Player (these stats may be innacurate, MR is hard to decipher while bugged)
#1 (0) Dissent - CookieM 5-1
#2 (+1) Creation - Warpt 7-0
#3 (-1) Money - Mercury 5-1
#4 (+1) Bad - Imperfection 5-1
#5 (+1) Spell - Yeung 4-1
#6 (-2) Nightwatch -
#7 (+1) Mutiny - Tardcart 4-0
#8 (+3) Rebels - esidebob 5-0
#9 (-2) Fighting Foodons - USS Evader 5-2
#10 (-1) Llamasery - NoCarbon 3-1
#11 (-1) Friendly Fire -
#12 (-1) Emblem -
#13 (+1) DragonWings - Brave 3-0
#14 (-1) Secret - Tragedy 6-1
#15 (0) In Flames -
#? (+) Ballistics - Ace 5-0
AML Predictions by Illuminus (written 10/22/04)
AML Season 10 Squad Analysis
Written by: Illuminus
Date: January 22, 2003
Carthage Division – Has a few strong squads but I feel that the average squad in Carthage is weaker than the average squad in Rome.
Predicted Playoffs Teams:
(not in order)
BlackNike
OldShift
EpiK
Unit
ReDS
Predicted Non-Playoff Teams:
Disavowed
7rominance
BLaCK STaR
Secret
SS Crips
BlackNike: Strong squad. I have never personally faced them but I know they were a tough team last season. I don’t know a whole lot about them, but from what I have heard they are loosing a little strength. However they are still undeniably good, and should defiantly be making the playoffs again this season.
BLaCK STaR: Old squad name that carries a lot of power. They have some good guys on their roster for sure. However I don’t know how much dedication to playing this squad has. I think if they really tried this squad would be one of the best in this division, playoffs for sure, and I hope that they do. But this early on in the season I’m going to have to say that they won’t be making playoffs, but I very well may be wrong on this one.
Disavowed: To be perfectly honest I don’t know a thing about this squad. But from what I see on other peoples predicitions, they are going to drop ½ way through this season. Therefore they wont be making playoffs on my predictions. Sorry Fellas.
EpiK: Well Well Well…it appears that some people are still overlooking this obvious stacked team. I have quite a bit of faith in this team, and I’m going to go ahead and say they will win this division, and quite possibly AML. I sure hope I’m right about this or else I’m going to look like a fool….but I’m pretty sure that I’m right. Carthage, these are your guys to beat.
OldShift: Good squad. Few new recruits. AML division of last seasons IML champs. Some power in these guys for sure. Sometimes underestimated, sometimes overestimated, however formidable either way. I don’t see these guys not making playoffs in this division. Good Luck to OS.
7rominance: Not a bad squad, lot of players, but no real stand out starters to own in matches. I think they’ll pull off victories against the lower squads, but once they play the starters of this divisions leaders, they’re not going to be able to hold it together. Possibly playoff spot for them, but I’m leaning towards no at the moment.
ReDS: Such an old name in subspace. One of the best Warzone squads ever, also the same squad who had RaDaR in pro. However RaDaR seems a long time ago, and I wasn’t even around to see that. I think this squad has a lot of strength, and if they keep at it will dominate AML before anyone even realizes it. However I think they are going to need a season to warm up. Playoffs yes, AML Champs, no.
Secret: Unfortunately these guys are nothing like their IML team. Secret as some good players but they are not deep enough to secure a playoff position. I don’t’ know a whole lot about these guys however so I can’t say much more than that.
SS Crips: No clue. From what everyone says, AML dropouts. See Ya. No Playoffs here.
Unit: Good squad, not great, but I think because this is Carthage that they will end up making playoffs in one of the lower slots. If they had their players from Pro I think they’d be a lot better off, but they don’t. Good luck Unit.
Rome Division – Much stronger division for sure. I think many of the AML power houses lie here.
Predicted Playoffs Teams:
(not in order)
Krieger
Warlords
Dedication
StarFire Elite
Liquid Inc.
Predicted Non-Playoff Teams:
(not in order)
Blitzed
ElementalForces
Starseed TR.
Undermined
DAMN_Yankees
Blitzed: Blitzed, from what I have seen, is a good squad. Lot of potential here with a decently strong roster. We just played Blitzed preseason round 1 and won 12-2, however even though the score looks bad, they played a lot better than the score hints to. I expect this squad will be close to grabbing a playoff spot but most likely not, not in Rome anyway.
DAMN_Yankees: Good squad of warzoners that don’t play 4v4. Could be good w/ some work. Give them 6 months and they’ll be a different team. However they got placed in the wrong division and I lack faith in not so much their dedication, but they’re interest in 4v4 to give it a real honest effort. Probably not playoffs, sorry fellas.
Dedication: Not going to say much here. This is my own squad. I have faith in my guys, to make playoffs, however I have no further comments.
ElementalForces: Not even the same squad as last season, just same name. SkyOne has gathered a huge roster of mediocre pilots backed by an extremely fierce starting line up, but due to the large roster I still see depth in the squad. I think this squad has decent playoff possibilities, but not a definite. If their bench throws in some effort to back their starters up, watch out for EF.
Krieger: Krieger is defiantly a strong squad. No doubt about that. Defiantly a division champion contender if they can stay active and play together. Krieger has some old pro players and some other strong players to assist them. My only fear is this squad either loosing their drive to win, or loose key members. At any rate, a force to be reckoned with, and definite playoff team.
Liquid Inc: Warzone master laggers and lobbers. They were very good last season, and everyone says they are loosing their skill, but I know these guys are solid players who will bounce back. If they want to do well this season they will. Liquid Inc. lost first round to Krieger, but I think if they had actually put some effort into it, it would have been a much closer game. Don’t overlook these team players. Playoff possibilities.
StarFire Elite: A very good squad. No doubting that, they showed some real competition last season. However I can’t seem to help but feel that they have lost some of their skill that made them such a formidable squad. That added with the fact that the competition for them is a lot harder this season than last season might make for a rougher season than they predict. I think they will be competing for a playoff position. Good luck though, I have a lot of respect for this squad.
Starseed TR: Don’t know a whole lot about this squad. From my nosing around I have gathered that this squad Is led by Gmonkey and is mostly composed of warzoners. This squad probably have some skill, however I know personally, since I am an warzoner, I know the transition to successful teamwork in 4v4 takes more time than a week. As for playoffs, I don’t know cause I haven’t seen them play, but since there are a lot of good squads in Rome, I am going to have to say most likely not playoffs, but close.
Undermined: Warzoners. Got smoked by Warlords round 1 preseason. Not counting these guys out yet though. Some definite skill on this squad. If they can bring all their talent together into a functioning team these guys could be a force to be reckoned with. However I don’t know if they have the dedication in their squad to actually do it. I see them getting disheartened by losses mid season and fading out. Doubting playoffs for Undermined.
Warlords: Holy Cow. That’s all I have to say. Came outta nowhere with some new recruits and now these guys absolutely rock. If they want to they can slaughter most squads that they will face, and I think they will. Mizerie is a good captain and I have a lot of faith in his squad. I don’t see them loosing interest mid season, and even if they did they’ve got enough roster to run three teams. This squad will be in competition for division title, and will ease through most of their games.
Here we are at the beginning of a new AML season. The number of squads has been trimed to a mere 20 making the competition that much more fierce.
I'll run through this squad by squad. And then conclude with some general thoughts.
7rominence - Fishi's squad is back and better than ever? 7rom once again has a very large roster filled with WZ players who know teamwork. While they pracced hard last season, I have not seen them around very much this season. With a team of medium skill level players who will need to rely on teamwork to win, this feels like disaster to me. Some players such as Silly n00b have continued to prac and as a result have gotten much better, but I don't think it'll be enough to offset the lack of practice. If 7rom's premier inactivity continues, I expect them to miss the playoffs by a good margin in the tougher AML that is this season.
Black Star - Black Star is a relatively old squad I know that much. More than that I could not tell you. I've seen them prac a few times and they have decent pilots and decent teamwork. At this point they look like they'll sneak into the playoffs. With more premier 4v4 practice, look for this evaluation to change for the better. Without practice, they could definitely drop from the last few playoff spots.
BlackNike - BN has noticeably lost pilots and on paper looks weaker than they were last season. This does not however, mean that they are weak by any stretch of the imagination. The nikes had so much talent last season that even losing Super.fly and a slew of other very talented pilots will not put a major dent into this team's playoff hopes. With the current roster and a goodly level of activity by tthe top pilots(That means you Sony =P) this squad could once again go far in the playoffs. If the activity remains at its current level, BN is projected to go out in the second round of the playoffs.
-BlitZed- - :)
Damn_Yankees - Old school squad here. DY has been around premier before but are primarily a WZ squad like several others this season. The only player I see praccing this season though is Riptide. He's not a bad pilot but they'll need more than him to be successful this season. This is certainly not the strongest rendition of DY that we've seen but with some hard work they will probably make the playoffs as a lower seed.
Dedication - This is a squad that has reloaded from last season's Wretcheds squad that started out the first half of the season perfect. With an aggressive talented roster that is improving every day and pracs hard, look for Dedication to go far this season. With a touch of luck, I would not be surprised to see them in the semifinals/finals. Excellent pickups in the finisher that is forklift and the weasel presence that is Purple. Tenet is also an asset off the bench. This on top of a strong Wretcheds team from last season spells trouble for the rest of AML.
Disavowed - So Disavowed is back after that embarrassing loss to SFE a few season ago. If you'll remember back with me, Dis was dominant that season. I don't expect them to repeat that success this season, but I do expect them to be an upper level AML squad. King Seph is hiding behind an alias but he's a good captain with a group of very experienced(read:old and rusty :)) pilots who are around to give it one more go.
Looking through the log from the first preseason game v. BN I found this nugget of wisdom:
morphine> joe wishes he wasn't in a terrier right now
morphine> he'd trade a testicle for a WB i'll bet
Look for Disavowed to be a force this season but lose in a hardfought loss in the playoffs to a team that practices more than they do.
ElementalForces - Well Sky is back with his group of veterans who've had a season under their collective ss playing belts. Gone are the inactive alpha scrubs sky had last season; in place of them he has seasoned league talents in Symbsters, Something Dutch, and Aramen(I don't know who's behind the alias) to name a few names. Sky's newbs have also grown up. Technocop looks better every time I see him. Look for VT_Hunterkiller to be a dominant cloaker and top 25 AML pilot by the end of the season. This squad still has a lot of growing to do together and some bad elements on roster may cause problems along the way, but I consider them a definite lock for the playoffs.
EpiK - EpiK was a surprise last season led by the tandem that was FEAR and EAR. This season those two aliases are gone but in their place Passplay has dug up inno and a couple more aliases. On paper Epik looks stronger than last season(they look like a finals contender) but in reality, I haven't seen Inno very many times in the last half year they'll need him to make it that far. With or without their ringers, look for Epik to be a playoff team. They've finally rediscovered that winning flavor and I don't see them giving that up any time soon.
Krieger - Sailboats is in AML with a different name. Looking at the roster they have several standout names but again, I don't know the activity level of this squad. I have never seen their top 4 praccing and this could very well be the way the rest of the season turns out. Truthfully though, even without their top 4, Kreiger is a solid playoff team given even a whiff of teamwork. If they can stop from exploding that is. We'll see, but I fully expect them to win and win often.
Liquid Inc. - LI was a success last season, posting one of the best winning percentages in all of AML. Their style that emphasizes slow deliberate teamwork and concentrated lobbing is a tough one for an AML squad to crack. That being said though, I have not seen very many LI pilots praccing in 4v4. Simply put, without practice this team does not make the playoffs as evidenced by their loss last week to Krieger in a game that should have been a toss up. I expect them to slowly regain their momentum though and regain their form of last season halfway through this one. One other note, the loss of more majorum is a crushing blow. Even if they regain all the lost teamwork of last season, without him LI is not a finals contender.
OldShift - OldShift is back. The inactivity is back. Genocide is back(though I haven't seen him for a long long time). On paper OldShift looks stronger than they were last season. Last season they looked very strong. Activity level will decide where this squad ends up. A starting 4 of Shikaa Jam-Z Geno and Street Fighter can play with anyone in AML. Given how this season seems to be unfolding, look for this starting 4 to never appear. Oldshift should still make the playoffs, but that and how far they go should they make it will depend on how much drive is left in Oldshift players.
Reds - My first thought after seeing Reds announced as an AML squad was: wow, Reds in AML. That is still my thought. Reds have been around a long time(I feel like I'm saying that for quite a few squads this season) and bring to AML a dedicated sense of teamwork and quality pilots at all 4 positions as well as on the bench. Even with a weaker roster than Reds squads of the past and seemingly Inactive pilots in Asterix and zoe, Reds will be very strong. Look for them to be an upper level AML squad.
Secret - Secret is back for their second season in AML. Last season they snuck into the playoffs as a wild card squad and maximized their potential doing so. This season they are back with a weakened and smaller roster. This looks like nothing but misery and trouble for Secret AML. They do not have 4 pilots on roster that can compete with playoff bound AML squads and given the small roster, any inactivity will just result in a complete disaster. They are very nice people and I wish I could say differently, but I don't see them making the playoffs.
SS Crips - SS CRIPS ARE BACK WITH A ROSTER OF 6. THIS IS HUGE. BUKK MAY HAVE TO SUB. THEY SHOWED TO EVERY GAME LAST SEASON AND I HOPE THEY WILL SHOW TO EVERY GAME THIS SEASON. DO NOT EXPECT VERY MANY VICTORIES, BUT DO EXPECT SCHEDULING IN CAPS.
StarFire Elite - SFE is back. The roster is relatively unchanged except for the additions of 89sweaper and Vial, both of whom could fill the 5 and 6 slots for this squad admirably if needed. Solar is still captain with a more active preussie as assistant captain. AML may have gotten tougher but don't expect SFE to go anywhere from their perch atop the standings. As long as Deist's lag(err skill) and Alperri still show to games, SFE's baffling teamwork and toughness will win the day much more often than not.
StarseedTR - A late addition to AML and a squad I don't understand. Most of the names are alien to me and the names that I do know are only decent AML pilots. I don't expect teamwork to be very good at the beginning of the season and should that shoddy teamwork continue, I do not see this squad making the playoffs.
Undermined - Corrupt/AP/NB is back with a vastly weakened roster. All of their starters from last season have moved up to IML to play for zanny on FF. Sister is very good and Hobbes.fu is a tough pilot, but the story of this season will be told by the rest of the roster. This will mean a lot of playing time for career bench pilots with good potential such as Imposter, Talion and Nature calls. Look for a lot of growth during the season for this squad if they do not get discouraged by the losses. By they end of the season, I could very well see them playing at a playoff level, but their record at that point will doom them to simply watching the playoffs on 8025.
Unit - Unit has an AML and a PRO version and I honestly do not know which one is stronger. Unit came out with a stronger showing than I thought they would last week and defeated Secret rather handily. I still think the roster is a little thin though with no truly exceptional pilots. Should their current practice schedule and attitude continue look for Unit to definitely make the playoffs. They should be one of the better blue collar stories in AML this season.
Warlords - Last but certainly not least we have Warlords. WL have been mired in mediocrity since their inception it seems. That will change this season. Tarnished Silver is back from Dissent and he has brought both Dissent's teamwork and Dissent's winning swagger back with him. WL has responded to this like no squad in recent memory. They are now practicing all the time and display a teamwork that is already one of the best in AML. What will keep them from a deep playoff run is still the lack of dominant individual pilot skill, but this is a squad that has certainly turned the corner. Look for them to be an upper level AML squad.
Final thoughts:
1)A helluva season is coming up and should be one of the toughest AML seasons in a long while. Look for very close games every week as there is no single favorite to win it all.
2)It's kinda fun seeing all the old names on AML rosters. I wonder if Gavin is still any good.
3)Llamaplayoffs?
4)I respect Unit PRO for having the balls to move up there, but I don't understand what they were thinking? They have no chance to earn a win. CRnewbs will destroy them. They should gain a lot of experience though. I fully expect every pilot on that roster to be at least twice as good by the end of the season.
5)Llamaplayoffs? Llamas are much more than just Nocarbon. They need to practice more, but IML is not ready for depth of solid talent that is llamasery this season.
6)My squad needs to practice more, those lazy bastards :)
7)What is with the lagging out that has become prevalent the last few days. I can no longer stay in a prac. Have the lag settings been changed?
8)Cashew needs to get his ass off FFXI and start writing more predictions/praccing.
9)Saw The Magnificent Seven again the other day. God damn that movie is awesome. I wonder why they don't make good westerns any more. I figure it's just a lost artform.
10)GL to all squads in AML this season :)
No huge surprises or big upsets to speak of yet (unless you consider the ball vs nw match). Here's some results and revised squad rankings.
#9 (Foodons) defeats #8 (Mutiny) in a very close match. Even w/ the early choke Mut almost came back.
#14 (Secret) defeats #16 (In Flames). Welcome to iml IF.
#13 (Rebels) defeats #12 (Emblem). Tied at 7-7 23 minutes into the match....pretty close teams here too.
#5 (Creation) defeats #15 (DragonWings). Almost a huge upset here. Creation still not gellin' and DW looking to prove something...but it takes a superior team to make a comeback from 0-4. GG both teams.
#11 (Llamas) defeats #10 (Friendly). Tied at 5-5 35 minutes into the match...definitely closely paired teams, but NoCarbon's clutch knockout sealed llamas fate.
#4 (Money) defeats #6 (Bad). Etholene choked out fresh to an early 0-2 slot to make this a blowout. Bad 1/2 game closer to implosion.
#? (Balls) defeats #3 (NW). Inactivity will sorely affect NW early in this season...will they pull it together?
#2 (Dissent) defeats #7 (Spell). Was a pretty straightforward ownage here. Spell needs more players.
Revised Rankings - slightly skewed shift due to RS moving up.
Squad(movement) ------ Top Player
#1 (0) Dissent - Omis 2-0
#2 (+1) Money - Mercury 5-1
#3(+1) Creation - Warpt 7-0
#4(-2) Nightwatch -
#5 (0) Bad -
#6 (0) Spell -
#7 (+1) Fighting Foodons - USS Evader 5-2
#8 (-1) Mutiny -
#9 (+1) Llamasery - NoCarbon 3-1
#10 (-1) Friendly Fire -
#11 (+1) Rebels - Incom T-65 4-1
#12 (-1) Emblem -
#13 (0) Secret - Tragedy 6-1
#14 (0) DragonWings -
#15 (0) In Flames -
#? (+) Ballistics - AgentSteel 4-1
Let me begin by saying I honestly don't know what I'm talking about...these are just vague gut instinct opinions with little or no evidence...I simply don't have the time to sit down and write fun stuff as much as I'd like but I still want to contribute to the preseason mayhem. I'll leave my own squad out of the rankings so others have a chance at being in the cool mystery slot. Enjoy.
#1 Redshift - Going Pro?
#2 Dissent - One of the deeper rosters in the league. Lot of chemistry, very competitive. Bench has some choke potential.
#3 Nightwatch - Haven't been as active as usual lately, but if they pull it together will be a force this season as they were last season.
#4 Money - Kind of a wild card team. Lot of potential, but dedication may be absent.
#5 Creation - One of the more active squads currently. Not consistent yet, but putting in solid pracs. If they solidify could make an appearance in playoffs.
#6 Bad - A couple decent mid level (and maybe 1 or 2 high level) talents on this squad, but also a lot of ego looking for skill as well. Implosion level = orange alert.
#7 Spell - Thin but decent roster. Could be a force with another couple decent pilots.
#8 Mutiny - Good start on the roster, but not deep enough to carry them to the top in iml.
#9 Fighting Foodons - Medium-sized roster with no particular standouts and some egos to disrupt their flow.
#10 Friendly Fire - Not too much different from last season but recruited some potential from aml...good and bad.
#11 Llamasery - Couple decent pilots in there, but not enough dedicated players for a solid starting four.
#12 Emblem - Have some lag power, but a slim roster and no obviously consistent starters.
#13 Rebels - I predict a lot of trash talk but little results from these guys.
#14 Secret - Looks like their was a rift of some kind, this team isn't looking healthy for this season...I assume they'll be looking to recruit a bit.
#15 DragonWings - Hastily assembled team of casual minutemen. Have a couple ok players, but doubt they'll find chemistry this season.