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Momatose has made some pretty nice predictions for AML Round 5. You can see part 1 & 2 by clicking the link below.
Two squads who were around last time I was predicting. But they're not playing the same way. They're a combined 7-1 so far this season, and if anyone says they predicted that then they're a lying ######, kupo.
Secret play a patient game to progressivly wear down opponents. A deep squad with players who have been on the squad for many seasons before enables them to sub freely without hindering their game plan. A lot of experienced players who know how to win games, and have proved so far this season that they have what's needed to get into the playoffs. Their first two first wins have been padded with rather more impressive wins over Skyrakers and Anarchists, the Anarchists game a win they had to really dig deep to get out of the bag.
Alcoholism are a reborn squad that doesn't bare much ressemblence to the drunks before it. The ragtag bunch are composed of old Alcos, bench warmers from last season and a few players (crumbs, Saigon, Rei-) who have featured for squads in the past. They vary their play, able to play the patient game but can also bring in the heavies to change the game. So far their results have been hit and miss. Two big hits to clobber Jr. Gods and Liquid Inc. And two misses against Anarchists and Obsessed, despite winning the latter.
An evenly matched contest that could go two ways. A close match that could bring the second OT game of the season, or a fast match finished very quickly. If Secret control the game they could lead Alco for a merry dance and possibly pick them off quite quickly. If they let it go out of their grasp it could end in a rather different way. On a side note according to MR only three squads do more damage to other squads than they recieve. And two of them face off here.
Secret to maintain their winning streak. Barely. 4.5 Kupo Nuts out of 5, don't miss this game that should decide the Kings division.
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Two squads composed of those not quite good enough or too new for their IML parent squads. Or possibly those that the ranking system didn't pick up. Anything is possible. Possibly two of the strangest winning record teams so far this season.
AMLlamasery play a moderate game. They have experienced players, but sadly those players havn't really improved much over the seasons and pale quickly when the pressure is on. There are standout players, but they can't carry the team against bigger, better squads. They can perform well as a team, but will have to step it up to challenge the better squads in the group. Most decent squads in the league can beat up on the weak Enigma and FND, and also on the dissappointing Militancy. But Externals showed there's still some work to be done.
Reds have the tools to win. They have plenty of quality players to win games at this level, many of which could easily be a starter on most other squads. However cracks are showing. This squad depends more on Solo Kills than other high ranked squads (1.5:1), but more alarmingly have an awful tendency to waste reps. Two figures speak for themselves, 0.7 wasted reps per life (worst in AML) and 5.6 wasted reps per game (2nd worst in AML). This may be why they lost against Warlords (8 wasted reps!) and didn't beat Hitlist and Militancy as well as they should have. Maybe they don't care enough?
Two 3-1 squads. On the one side a squad that does what it can to beat squads but won't beat the tougher squads in the group. On the other side a squad who are their own worst enemy at times. AMLlamasery could win this with the right strategy if Reds play like they have in their past games. But I think Reds will start to buckle down with the playoffs on the horizon.
Reds to win in crushing manner, but not without making the odd stupid mistake. 2.5 Kupo Nuts, too much of a mismatch unless AMLlamasery step it up.
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Surprised by these two? I would be too. They're actually showing (more often than not) and playing quite well (sometimes). To be honest, I'd be surprised if I get this prediction right.
SkyRakers depend on their playmakers. Yoki and Static Burn can tear it up. What they lack so far is depth. Once those two have a couple of players alongside them who could do a good job they could be a handful. However if either of those two are absent the squad suffers. If Yoki and SB had been present against Secret and Jr.Gods maybe they wouldn't have lost so heavily. With them both in against SFA and Obsessed they got two big wins.
Anarachists could've be undefeated this season. Like SkyRakers they have two quality players in nismo and anthem. However they also have extra players to back them up. When they show people they give squads a good game. They beat up Alcoholism and Jr. Gods, and only just lost to Secret. However when they showed 3 against LI .. well, you can guess the rest.
If both teams show both their quality players this could be an excellent game. However if either team is missing one or two of their star players this game will be over before it starts.
Anarchists to win. Better depth, more chance of their star players showing and if one of them doesn't they'll absorb it better. 4 Kupo Nuts if both teams show full squads. 2.5 otherwise.
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Mismatch of the week. One side that would be ok if they showed, and the powerhouse of the season so far.
Enigma live up to their name. If all their players showed they'd give squads some good matches. Sadly they don't show enough, and the only questions opposing squads ask themselves is if Enigma will show.
Warlords have pummeled every squad they've faced so far. They've faced 3 of the 4 best squads in the Pharaohs division and beaten them by a combined 36-14. But don't tell them they had a small share of luck in a couple of those games. They don't make mistakes, they have depth (2nd most subs), they can mix good teamwork with individual skill. And they do more damage than they take. Oh, and they have one of the best players in AML in acidreign. The question isn't if they'll finish top of their group, it's who they'll face for the top seed in the playoffs. The AML favorites so far.
Enigma, only show three players to this game. If you're going to show 4 then do it next week when it could be an entertaining game. Not this week when you're going to get beaten up. It could be intresting to see if they can recruit more for next season like FnD did after one season. But don't Forfeit again.
This won't be pretty. Warlords for a huge win. 1 Kupo Nut if Enigma shows and you like explosions.
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A game that has big win for one side written all over it ... or does it?
If you asked Subspacers to name three squads to win AML you'd have more often than not heard Externals. With the ability to overpower most squads, a staggering squad depth blended with many peoples best player of the season in jocker they seemed a smart pick. After 10 minutes against Warlords it seemed like they'd pull out a big win. But dusks subsequent self destruction put an end to that. In both their losses (including preseason) they've thrown away games by losing players at points in the game they shouldn't be losing them and subsequently falling apart. Odd considering that they show great teamwork otherwise. They weren't given much of a challenge in their first three games, picking up two big wins and a forfeit win on the way. But in their first challenge of the season they lost.
Hitlist have plenty of good players. They also could've beaten Warlords. At least, they could've if it hadn't have been for the spectacular way in which Gunstar destroyed his squads chances of a big win. Assuming Gunstar is now perma benched for the season Hitlist have a legitimate shout at being a dark horse in AML. They work well as a team, they don't make mistakes (3rd lowest Wasted Reps in league) and they should get at least two wins before the end of the season. They picked up a couple of easy wins against Militancy and FnD, and lost a close OT one to Reds. Oh, and there was the Gunstar match too.
I can see why people think Externals will win. On paper they look the better squad. They should have the better players. Thing is if Hitlist show their best team and don't start Gunstar then they'll win. Of course, they'll have to show a full team to prove me right, but they'll win this.
Hitlist to win a close game. 4 Kupo Nuts. Should be a great game.
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Ouch. No wins for either of these teams. Two squads returning to AML after too long an absence .. at least I think one of them is.
FlyNDeath quickly rounded up whoever they could to play for them this season. And it shows. When they show 4 they get overpowered, outclassed, outgunned .. if it begins with "out" it most likely applies. Outstandingly bad works too. However two weeks ago they only showed 3 ... and last week only showed 2. Maybe they'll show 4 this week against a fellow 0-4 squad? This season has just gone from bad to worse for FnD, losing big, big, bigger and ... well, 12-0.
Militancy look decent on paper. They've got a few good players there. Symbsters, targeter2, freakmonger, Largo ... that makes a decent lineup right? Yet somehow they're 0-4. Partly because they can't get some of their players to show, partly because they just can't get it together as a team. They've had a tough schedule so far losing 4 big games, but with Externals coming soon they need to start stepping it up, and soon.
If FnD show 4 they may get a few kills. But Militancy should be using this game to figure out what they need to do to make a late run for the playoffs.
Militancy for a big win. 2 Kupo Nuts, it's a mismatch of 0-4 squads.
Kupo!
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A game neither team can afford to lose, because if they do they'll have an uphill struggle to get into playoff contention.
Before I carry on my recap of this squad, just a quick summary of preseason predictions. "Should win Kings-division unless something very unexpected happens." - Mauler. "These guys are still the team to beat." - targeter2. What does this mean? That in Subspace predictors can predict kupofuck all. Unlike predictors on ESPN, we don't get paid for our pathetic attempts at clairvoyance. But you can hardly blame Mauler and targeter2. Looking at the roster this squad looked dominating. It the roster alone doesn't tell you that Pot and Fog plainly don't give a kupofuck about this season or that other players havn't hit top gear yet this season. You wouldn't think they have one of the top performers of the season so far. Maybe they'll turn it on towards the end of the season when it matters. So far though they've thrown away a game they should've won against LI, wilted over time against Anarchists and ... well just plain sucked against Alcoholism. If gypo hadn't have turned in the kind of performance to make Gunstar proud in the absence of Yoki and Static Burn they could even be 0-4!
Aaah, SFA. Compare their roster from last season to this season. It's basicly the same team with Speed added. So one could presume they're worse this season than last season? I'll attribute the fact Speed is 2-0 so far to luck. Anyway, this squad is very balanced. They show good teamwork ... but for most of the season they've lack a gamebreaker. Someone who can take a game by the scruff of the neck and swing it into their favor. vt could solve that, if he shows to more games. He was the deciding factor for them against LI, a game many thought they'd lose. Indeed bar that impressive win their season has been rather predictable so far. Get overpowered by good teams, beat up on teams worse than them.
Both teams need this win. Jr. Gods need it to get the momentum to go 3-3 going into their match against Secret. If they lose this match they could very easily finish 2-5 after the regular season which, with the magic Miz seeding formula could very easily see them knocked out even if they win their 3 seeding games. SFA need it to give them the tiebreaker over Jr.Gods (if Jr. Gods rebound), and if vt starts showing up they may just break .500 for the season.
If vt shows, and Jr.Gods don't give a kuposhit about the game the SFA will steal a squeaker of a win, with a 3.5 Kupo Nut game. If vt doesn't show then SFA will be in for a torrid time, especially if Jr.Gods start warming up for an end of season charge to the playoffs. 2.5 Kupo nuts.
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In the final match of the week we have two squads that share a common theme. They'd both be doing better if they showed their best lineup every week.
So far this season Liquid Inc have had their eye elsewhere in the Warzone League. At least, according to Pension. Isn't it over yet? Anyway, they have plenty of quality experienced players, quite a few have been playing in the same squad for many a season. But they've just gone backwards since the first seasons. In season 9 they reached the semi finals in a 13-4 season. In the three seasons after that they've gone a combined 12-21 (and three of those wins were against C*Z). And this season since a superb performance against Jr. Gods they've had a win against a 2 man Anarchists, lost heavily to Alcoholism and lost to ... SFA. As much as it's not cool to see squads drop out maybe it's time to give LI a season or two off to regroup? Or at least cut off the old and bring in new blood. They should be using teamwork to overpower teams. Instead they seem to be caught between one league they care about, and one they either don't really care about or can't win in anymore.
Obsessed had such high hopes for this season. Shrugging off the C*Z cocoon to go to an impressive 3-0 preseason. Of course, preseason means nothing. If they showed their best players to every game they could be doing quite well. They've got a front four that would give most teams a good game. Problem is, until Medicus, Sug and Sagum show to the same game they can't trouble squads. In most games they've collapsed as the game goes on. With two of those showing they collapsed again, but gave more of a game of it. Now then if all three showed with a decent fourth, they really could do Ok. Pity they have to play Jr. Gods and Anarchists after this.
If Obsessed show their best lineup then they could squeak this one. But they won't, and another slow slide will see them lose again. LI to win this one, and it won't be much fun to watch. 2 Kupo Nuts.
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Ok that's it for this week! Next predictions will most likely be an ambitious attempt at predicting the seeding round results, which will of course be a disaster of titanic proportions when half my predictions go wrong in the first round.
submitted by: Momatose
Posted by freakmonger at September 14, 2005 08:27 PM | TrackBack