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While this is mainly prediction and statiscal oddities and filled with much bias. Here are my predictions for how Carthage will fall into playoffs. In 24 hours, we'll see just how right I am or am not, but until them I'd like to think this is it baby. This is your Carthage Line-Up for playoffs. Normally its easy, but the sheer amount of make-up round matches involved makes it entirely difficult to really predict something at this moment.
The rankings will most likely be:
| Rank | Squad | Record | Predicted Record | Wins | Losses | Probability of Exact Prediction | Probability of Record Match |
| 1 | Wretcheds | 9-0 | 12 - 1 | Heaven, BlackNike, OldShift | Fighting Foodons | 20% | 90% |
| I hands down put the odds against Wretcheds to finish the season undefeated. It just won't happen. They do not face a single weak squad in their final 4 mathces. All but Foodons are kinda flaky, but when they are on they are on. Wretcheds have ridden a lot of teamwork and chokes to make it this far, but the choking will stop sometime. | |||||||
| 2 | Tweaked | 11 - 1 | 12 - 1 | Fighting Foodons | N/A | 70% | 70% |
| Tweaked should beat Fighting Foodns and move into second place. This should put them in second, matching Wretcheds score but VERY far behind the differential that Wretcheds have built up all season. There is a chance for Tweaked to retain #1 if Wretcheds falls twice which is possible but not likely unless the 1 of the 3 flakiest squads in Carthage pulls it together. | |||||||
| 3 | Fighting Foodons | 9-1 | 11-2 | 7rom, Wretcheds | Tweaked | 25% | 85% |
| Fighting Foodons will upset Wretcheds or possibly Tweaked, but I don't beleive they can take both. Especially if they are missing USS Evader aka Pasta Vazoomin'. 7rom is almost a guarnteed win, so they will at the worst they can be 10-3 at the best they can be 12-1. So in an any day but hte coldest day in hell they will be 3rd, but if hell does freeze over you could see Foodons end up 1st or 2nd. This requires both Tweaked and Wretcheds to lose alot. | |||||||
| 4 | Corrupt | 8-4 | 9-4 | Epik | N/A | 65% | 65% |
| Here's bias. I feel that my squad can beat Epik and that we will take the really tight race for squads 4-7. These positions are not set and will be determined by the remaining games. Epik took our bench out in preseason but with an influx of returning starters we should be able to take them out by isolating their one star F|E|A|R. | |||||||
| 5 | OldShift | 8-3 | 9-4 | ElementalForces | Wretcheds | 70% | 70% |
| If OldShift pulls off the unlikely and beats Wretcheds you could see them move up into the 3rd or 4th slot, but its almost guarnteed that they will be 4th or 5th. I do not see EF doing anything but a NS and I do not see them performing particuarly strong against Wretcheds, but anything is possible if jaakko and another play on and the rest don't choke. | |||||||
| 6 | Epik | 8-4 | 8-5 | N/A | Corrupt | 65% | 65% |
| Epik and Corrupt can change places just by having Epik win. Well not exactly. If Epik wins they will be 5th because of their differential where as Corrupt should easily have a higher differential than OldShift since Corrupt has 2 unconverted NS wins. Epik could possibly fall into 7th but I do not honestly see it hapenning unless BlackNike performs amazingly well and 12-0's and Corrupt 12-0's Epik. This could swing the differential towards BlackNike's favor. | |||||||
Wildcard contenders
| Rank | Squad | Record | Predicted Record | Wins | Losses | Probability of Exact Prediction | Probability of Record Match |
| 7 | BlackNike | 7-4 | 8-5 | Skyrakers | Wretcheds | 70% | 75% |
| Blacknike has the single most important match in the AML season in its hands. If it takes out Wretcheds it will disrupt the playoffs setting and put Corrupt, OldShift, or Epik into the wildcard spot instead of them. This is very unlikely, but if BNike can return to their preseason play it would happen. Sadly, I don't see it happening with the current level of ineptitude in its pilots and captains. BlackNike to win one of the wild card spots though and make playoffs | |||||||
| 8 | Heaven | 5-6 | 6-7 | ElementalForces | Wretcheds | 90% | 95% |
| Heaven should be able to dispatch EF, but I do not see them getting close to taking out Wretcheds. If they do take out Wretcheds they are not in the same situation as Bnike because they lack the wins to do so thanks to early season losses. I am impressed they made it through the season and I expect to see them in the playoffs as the last wildcard spot. | |||||||
| 9 | Warlords | 4-7 | 5-7 | 7rom | N/A | 60% | 60% |
| Warlords are the wildest of the wildcard spots. I can easily see how they may take out 7rom and then take out whoever their wildcard opponent is. However, they need their best 4 playing their best which has not really happened this season. Warlords to end their season in the wildcard round. | |||||||
| 10 | 7rom | 4-7 | 4-9 | N/A | Warlords, Fighting Foodons | 60% | 65% |
| 7rom has been a giant let down since HV brought them a few random wins. Purple, HV, fishi, omegared, a psycho, and xblaze all possess the talent to make a squad run for their money, but this late in the season they have failed to impress anyone and usually look like Foodons in their first Heaven match-up. You can't count 7rom out yet, but I do not see them doing anything past the wildcard round.
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